Winter is Coming

  • 3,700+ (2016 — Credit Suisse) of Publicly traded Companies in the US; 3,300+ Hedge Funds (2020 — Preqin) based in the US
  • 3,700 / 3,200 = 1.12 Companies per HF Firm
  • Approx. 5.7mm Businesses in the US (22K with >$100mm of Sales — Census); approx. 500+ (2017 — Bain) of PE firms based in the US
  • 22K / 500 = 44 Private Companies w/ $100+mm of Sales per PE Firm
  • 8K (2017 — McKinsey) of which are already owned by Sponsors (suggesting that 14K (22K — 8K) remain have not received institutional capital)
  • Approx. 21K (2018 — Vlad Pavlov) Startups; 600 US VCs (doesn’t include individuals angels / rolling funds)
  • 21K / 600 = 35 Startups per VC
  • HF: The field of publicly traded companies continue to shrink as de-listings outpace IPOs / Direct Listing; SPACs may in the near-term increase supply
  • PE: GP-led Continuation Funds result in fewer secondary buyout transactions as Sponsors keep their trophy assets resulting in a level of adverse selection (i.e, Sponsors only sell the segment of the 8,000 they own because they no longer believe in the thesis)
  • VC: Opportunity set shrinks as bootstrapping / alternative forms of financing (i.e., Pipe, Capital, Earnest Capital, etc); Reformation Partners wrote on several of these alternatives



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Andy Lee

Andy Lee


Just a little country boy, lost in the city. Property of @tacoboutcorgi Get in touch via